Lately I have had a lot of folks ask me about the federal races and who I think is going to win. Such folks feel that there is a lot riding on the Senate races (i.e. the future of our great nation). So here it is...
Republican running for Senate will likely win the following states currently held by an incumbent democrat or a retiring democrat:
Alaska - Sullivan (R) beats incumbent Begich (D)
Arkansas - Cotton (R) beats incumbent Pryor (D)
Colorado - Gardener (R) beats incumbent Udall (D)
Iowa - Ernst (R) beats Braley (D)
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) beats incumbent Landrieu (D)
Montana - Daines (R) beats Walsh (D)
South Dakota - Rounds (R) beats Weiland (D)
West Virginia - Capito (R) beats Tennant (D)
These races above are trending Republican more and more every day. The DSCC just pulled all of its ads against McConnell in Kentucky signaling that they are stretched too thin nationally to compete against him after his opponent has repeatedly refused to answer whether she voted for Obama in the last election.
The predictions above seem to be the most likely scenario of Republican pick ups. The wild cards at this point are Kansas and Georgia. Since Obama stated that all of his policies are on the ballot, Kansas is trending hard towards the Republican incumbent Roberts. Georgia has been trending towards the Democrat, but such trends appears to be dissipating quickly. Even if the Republicans lost either Kansas or Georgia, Republicans are primed to knock off four incumbent Senate Democrats and take control of both houses of Congress.
Speaking of both houses in Congress, let's take a look at LaMalfa and McClintock and Logue. Both LaMalfa and McClintock are a lock to win their re-elections. McClintock will win by around 20 points, as low information, hyperpartisan democrat voters (like Jim Firth) will not turn out and then vote for a Republican. LaMalfa wins by a smaller margin. Logue has an outsight shot at beating Garamendi, and this race will come down to the wire...and whether democrats will actually get up and vote this election.
So...we will find out in three weeks. My bet is that Republicans end election day with a two-seat advantage in the Senate.
Republican running for Senate will likely win the following states currently held by an incumbent democrat or a retiring democrat:
Alaska - Sullivan (R) beats incumbent Begich (D)
Arkansas - Cotton (R) beats incumbent Pryor (D)
Colorado - Gardener (R) beats incumbent Udall (D)
Iowa - Ernst (R) beats Braley (D)
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) beats incumbent Landrieu (D)
Montana - Daines (R) beats Walsh (D)
South Dakota - Rounds (R) beats Weiland (D)
West Virginia - Capito (R) beats Tennant (D)
These races above are trending Republican more and more every day. The DSCC just pulled all of its ads against McConnell in Kentucky signaling that they are stretched too thin nationally to compete against him after his opponent has repeatedly refused to answer whether she voted for Obama in the last election.
The predictions above seem to be the most likely scenario of Republican pick ups. The wild cards at this point are Kansas and Georgia. Since Obama stated that all of his policies are on the ballot, Kansas is trending hard towards the Republican incumbent Roberts. Georgia has been trending towards the Democrat, but such trends appears to be dissipating quickly. Even if the Republicans lost either Kansas or Georgia, Republicans are primed to knock off four incumbent Senate Democrats and take control of both houses of Congress.
Speaking of both houses in Congress, let's take a look at LaMalfa and McClintock and Logue. Both LaMalfa and McClintock are a lock to win their re-elections. McClintock will win by around 20 points, as low information, hyperpartisan democrat voters (like Jim Firth) will not turn out and then vote for a Republican. LaMalfa wins by a smaller margin. Logue has an outsight shot at beating Garamendi, and this race will come down to the wire...and whether democrats will actually get up and vote this election.
So...we will find out in three weeks. My bet is that Republicans end election day with a two-seat advantage in the Senate.
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