My 2014 Congressional Picks

Lately I have had a lot of folks ask me about the federal races and who I think is going to win. Such folks feel that there is a lot riding on the Senate races (i.e. the future of our great nation). So here it is...

Republican running for Senate will likely win the following states currently held by an incumbent democrat or a retiring democrat:

Alaska - Sullivan (R) beats incumbent Begich (D)
Arkansas - Cotton (R) beats incumbent Pryor (D)
Colorado - Gardener (R) beats incumbent Udall (D)
Iowa - Ernst (R) beats Braley (D)
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) beats incumbent Landrieu (D)
Montana - Daines (R) beats Walsh (D)
South Dakota - Rounds (R) beats Weiland (D)
West Virginia - Capito (R) beats Tennant (D)

These races above are trending Republican more and more every day. The DSCC just pulled all of its ads against McConnell in Kentucky signaling that they are stretched too thin nationally to compete against him after his opponent has repeatedly refused to answer whether she voted for Obama in the last election.

The predictions above seem to be the most likely scenario of Republican pick ups. The wild cards at this point are Kansas and Georgia. Since Obama stated that all of his policies are on the ballot, Kansas is trending hard towards the Republican incumbent Roberts. Georgia has been trending towards the Democrat, but such trends appears to be dissipating quickly.  Even if the Republicans lost either Kansas or Georgia, Republicans are primed to knock off four incumbent Senate Democrats and take control of both houses of Congress.

Speaking of both houses in Congress, let's take a look at LaMalfa and McClintock and Logue.  Both LaMalfa and McClintock are a lock to win their re-elections.  McClintock will win by around 20 points, as low information, hyperpartisan democrat voters (like Jim Firth) will not turn out and then vote for a Republican.  LaMalfa wins by a smaller margin.  Logue has an outsight shot at beating Garamendi, and this race will come down to the wire...and whether democrats will actually get up and vote this election.

So...we will find out in three weeks.  My bet is that Republicans end election day with a two-seat advantage in the Senate.
 

LaMalfa's Dishonest Mailer - Updated

Editor's note: As discussed here before, we will likely be seeing these type of nasty and dishonest attacks against Dr. Aanestad as this congressional race starts to slip between LaMalfa's fingers.

The bills listed in Lamalfa's dishonest mailer were for first responders, like police and firefighters.

Does the mean that LaMalfa is anti-law enforcement?
Below is the truth about LaMalfa's most recent hit piece.

SB 65 – 2001
This contract is for 5 years; utilizes a salary formula driven by the “Big 5” urban police jurisdictions (LAPD, LASO, SFPD, Oakland and Dan Diego PD) creates the 3.0% at age 50 PERS retirement formula (effective 1-1-06) reduces institutional vacancy plans from 12% to 5% over next several budget cycles and provides legal protections for actions of officers in the “course and scope” of their duties. 
Passed the Assembly UNANIMOUSLY.

SB 1910 – 2000
Supervisory compaction is addressed for CDC/CYA only. $50 net (Chapter 902) pay increase effective 4/30/01, equalizing PERS (3.0% at 55) contribution and study of “total compensation” options by DPA due 3/31/01 for budget consideration. In 2000, with a budget surplus this was a pay raise to peace officers and firefighters in management.
PASSED THE SENATE UNANIMOUSLY.

AB 649 – 2000
Benefit Program Costs – Any change in liability would depend on which retirement system members elected to participate in.  Any increase in liability to CalSTRS, however, would be offset by increases in contributions.  Administrative costs were nominal. 
EVEN ROCK SOLID CONSERVATIVE GEORGE RUNNER VOTED FOR THIS BILL.

AB 906—2001
Temporarily reduces employee retirement contribution rates for specified state employees who are members of the CalPERS or the DB Program of CalSTRS.  This was a memorandum of understanding that only went into effect if there was money in the budget.
ONLY ONE ASSEMBLYMAN VOTED AGAINST.

AB 649 – 2001
Would require community college districts to provide the Cash Balance Benefit Program to part-time employees and allow them to elect coverage under that program, Social Security or an alternative retirement plan.  This was also a memorandum of understanding that only went into effect if there was money in the budget.
Passed the Assembly UNANIMOUSLY.

Now for a real fact, LaMalfa voted for the same exact bills when he entered the Assembly. 

AB 67 - 2003 - Sponsored by McLeod (D) from Southern California
Passed the Assembly unanimously with LaMalfa voting YES.

The mailer is meant to mislead voters when the truth is that when LaMalfa entered the Assembly, he voted the exact same way  That's about as dishonest as you can get.

Sacramento Bee Endorses Aanestad for Congress

"Of those two, Aanestad gets the nod in the June 5 top-two primary."

"Aanestad and LaMalfa don't differ much on the issues."

"Between the two, Aanestad brings a deeper understanding of the issues and can more readily justify his stands. Given his background in health care, Aanestad could help inform the discussion of what likely will be a major issue in Congress in 2013 and beyond."

"LaMalfa, by contrast, stumbled in our interview in explaining how the uninsured could gain coverage in a purely free-market system of care, which he endorses. He also needs to better explain how, as a recipient of farm subsidies and an advocate of smaller government, he'd reform the farm bill and trade policies so farmers like himself wouldn't need taxpayer help."

"Aanestad, 65, has the endorsement of Rep. Tom McClintock, the Elk Grove Republican. While we disagree with McClintock on many of his stands, we are pleased he isn't in lock step with Herger and most other Republicans, who've thrown their support behind LaMalfa."

The rest of the endorsement article of Dr. Aanestad is here.

The Sacramento Bee restates what we have been telling anyone that would listen. LaMalfa, while a nice guy, needs to get more experience in the California Senate before he goes to Congress. We need experienced and articulate Congressman to advocate on our behalf. LaMalfa would be a "semi-reliable" conservative vote, because he is so tied to the establishment. On the other hand, Aanestad is a solid conservative and has the experience and ability to bring others to his positions through thoughful consideration.

Sam Aanestad's Radio Advertisement

Editor's Note: On KNCO, I heard this advertisement from Sam Aanestad for Congress. I could not agree with you more Sam...we must live within our means and stop excessive government spending!

"Did you know you're $49,000 in debt? So are each of your kids and grandkids. That's because Congress has run up a $16 trillion national debt, and we're the ones stuck paying for it.

"I'm Sam Aanestad, and I'm running for Congress to stop this spending. I oppose adding even one more dollar in new debt. We need to stop spending.

"Now I know some disagree. One of my opponents [Doug LaMalfa] has taken millions of dollars in taxpayer-funded farm subsidies. He's running for Congress to protect the $200 billion farm welfare program.

"The problem is we can't afford it. Our kids and grandkids will be stuck paying the bill for the millions he's taken from the taxpayers. It's time we say no to government debt.

"I'm Sam Aanestad, and I approve this message paid for by Sam Aanestad for Congress because I am serious about ending government debt. To find out more, please visit SamAanestad.com.

We have discussed the $4.7 million in farm subsidies taken by LaMalfa in detail here and here.

LaMalfa's response is that he will not give up the subsidies to become a Congressman.

Here is the long and the short of Aanestad vs. LaMalfa.

If you want a conservative in Congress who will vote 10 out of 10 times with Congressman McClintock and the other fiscal hawks, Aanestad is your guy. If you want a consummate campaigner who will vote with the Republican leadership and tow the Republican line 10 out of 10 times like Wally Herger, vote for the corporate welfare recipient.

It is just that simple.

LaMalfa faces fire in congressional debate held in Redding

"Doug LaMalfa found himself on the defensive Monday night about the millions of dollars his family has received in federal farm subsidies over the years."

"At a debate organized by the Redding Tea Party Patriots featuring seven of the eight candidates in the 1st District Congressional race, one of LaMalfa's Republican challengers, Michael Dacquisto, asked the state senator if he would pledge to give back the subsidies should he be elected."

"LaMalfa's family has received $4.7 million in federal subsidies between 1995 and 2010, according to the Environmental Working Group, an organization that tallies federal farm aid. The subsidies have been roundly attacked by LaMalfa's opponents, who say it's hypocritical for a small-government Republican to accept the aid. LaMalfa says the payment program is necessary for 'breadbasket' farmers like him to offset the costs of burdensome regulations, government-imposed costs and trade agreements that put American farmers at a disadvantage."

"LaMalfa said should he be elected he would work to reduce those burdens so the subsidies are no longer necessary."

The rest of this article from the Redding Searchlight is here.

Sometimes it is interesting to listen to what candidates do not say. LaMalfa never said that he would work to get rid of subsidies.

While LaMalfa endured attacks from most of his competitors, Dr. Sam Aanestad did not criticize LaMalfa but focused instead on establishing himself as the more experienced and most conservative member of the group.

Dr. Aanestad noted he also has the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Tom McClintock.

Sen. La Malfa Backs Union Drill to Undermine San Jose Pension Reform Measure‏

Editor's Note: I received this email from a friend in San Jose today. I am reproducing it here in its entirety.  Off come the gloves....

Greetings from San Jose!

Being exiled to the Bay Area, I don't often have occasion to comment on votes cast by our Northern California representatives. However, yesterday an interesting twist of fate linked San Jose to Senator Doug La Malfa. Mr. La Malfa cast a horrible vote supporting a union effort to defeat San Jose's pension reform measure which the city council here placed on the ballot Tuesday afternoon. Overall this is a good measure, supported by the Republicans and "common sense" Democrats on the council, and will help reduce the crippling amount San Jose pays in pensions to public employees.

First, some background...

To give some context about the scope of the fiscal problems facing my city, this summer San Jose laid off a large amount of public safety officers and shut down its Vice department altogether. Here is a link to the story is here.

The number one fiscal impact in the city right now is its public employee pensions. Some public employees, collecting 90% of their "highest one-year" are receiving $120,000 in perpetuity. The city just can't afford it. So, a bipartisan coalition of moderate Democrats and Republicans proposed a pension reform measure. This measure is widely supported among Republicans and conservatives. Here's an editorial endorsing the measure. Tuesday afternoon the City Council approved putting the measure on the ballot.

Obviously, the unions don't like this. So, union-backed legislators, led by Assemblyman Beall (D-San Jose), came up with a scheme. They would force a "state audit" of San Jose to prove that, in fact, San Jose doesn't need pension reform and so the ballot measure ought be defeated. Yesterday was the vote on this "audit."

As is typical, the Democrats on the relevant committee supported the audit, and the Republicans opposed it -- and rightfully so, as this is not a good-faith audit but one born out of political retribution. However, Senators Anderson and La Malfa sided with the Democrats and voted to support the Unions' ploy. The full article is available here. (see page 2).

Reading about Senator La Malfa infuriated me. I may not have always supported the actions of his staff members and political operatives, but I have been a supporter of Senator La Malfa himself for many years. However, this vote is just too much for me to bear. I live in a decent neighborhood in San Jose, but less then a mile from a very bad part of San Jose known for its shootings and high crime rates. San Jose has been laying of police in droves, and this pension reform measure is needed. Senator La Malfa's vote could have a TANGIBLE effect on my family's safety.

I am not sure if Senator La Malfa is complicit or was just duped. It doesn't matter either way -- he should have known or learned about the context of his vote and the consequences. He is running in a contested election against a well-loved statesman in Sam Aanestad, and should have thought twice before siding with unions and Democrats.

Another Perspective on LaMalfa's $4.7 Million in Farm Subsidies

"Doug LaMalfa, Republican state senator and would-be congressman, will spend the better part of 2012 talking about the need to slow runaway federal spending and our government's nauseating deficits. And he'll be right."

"But bring up the awkward subject of his own family farm's federal crop subsidies — which have averaged more than $300,000 annually over the past 15 years, a sum every small-business owner would envy — and suddenly there's a reasonable explanation for the importance of multibillion-dollar government giveaways."

"We don't for a moment fault the man for participating in the programs that help support his family's Butte County rice farm. Whatever you think of farm subsidies, LaMalfa didn't invent them. He's not in Congress yet. And simply running a business according to the rules you find in place is no sin."

"But we will say this about LaMalfa. He's one of those conservatives whose rhetoric has hit an increasingly bitter anti-government note of late. He recently touted his congressional candidacy on the Republican website FlashReport in part by saying, 'I see it as my job to stand between the bureaucrat thugs and the people.' Are those the same 'thugs' who send his family business six-figure subsidies each year?"

The rest of The Record Searchlight editorial is here.

Personally, I would rather send someone to Congress that does not have the obvious conflict of interests.

LaMalfa's $4.7 million in farm subsidies draw attacks; Critics chide LaMalfa on aid for family's farm

"It didn't take long after Doug LaMalfa announced he was running for Congress last month before a supporter of his Republican opponents went on the attack, zeroing in on just less than $4.7 million of federal subsidies paid to his family rice farm over the last 15 years."

"In an interview, [Aaron] Park says he believes it's important to point out LaMalfa's family rice farm in Richvale has received millions of dollars of federal subsidies over the years, something he feels will be one of the biggest issues in the congressional race."

"'It's an issue about honesty and integrity,' Park said. 'It's about presenting yourself as one thing, when you're not. He really isn't a fiscal conservative. He's a liberal conservative.'"

"LaMalfa bristled at the attack." LaMalfa continued saying that the subsidies "keep struggling farmers of rice, corn and other crops 'on life support.'"

The rest of the article is here.

Life support? Five million dollars of life support?

Two of LaMalfa's opponents had the following to say:

Pete Stiglich said the it's "hypocritical for a fellow Republican to receive federal farm aid, especially because LaMalfa has billed himself as a leader in the fight against expensive government entitlement programs."

"'When it meets [LaMalfa's] personal interest, it's not a big entitlement,' Stiglich said."

"Gregory Cheadle, a Happy Valley Republican, agreed."

"'You can't condemn welfare recipients on one end then get welfare on the other end,' Cheadle said. 'I mean 5 million bucks? Come on.'"

Exit Question: How can LaMalfa be serious about government entitlement reform when the government has provided him with almost $5 million?

BREAKING - Doug LaMalfa to Draw Sam Aanestad as an Opponent? [Updated at 4:54pm]

Right on Daily is reporting that Sam Aanestad is seriously considering a run for the congressional seat from which Wally Herger recently retired.

[Update from 3:21pm] FlashReport is also reporting via Twitter - "*Breaking* Just off phone w Sen. Sam Aanestad (Retd). He's exploring a bid for Congress. Would set table for showdown w Sen. LaMalfa."

Right on Daily states, "[T]here is no truer friend to Conservatives in Northern California than Sam Aanestad. Sam supported his mentor, Tom McClintock for Congress when Doug LaMalfa and 100 local electeds chose the establishment Moderate over now Congressman McClintock."

"Sam Aanestad was rated the most Conservative Senator in California the year before he retired from the State Senate in 2010."

The rest of the Right on Daily article is here.

[Update from 4:54pm] "'It's an exciting year politically, there's an opportunity for change,' [Aanestad] said. 'And to serve with like-minded people in control and to see that carry over to the Senate and (White House) and work on revamping the economy.'"

"'[Aanestad] said that he wasn't surprised Herger decided not to run, but was surprised by the decision to endorse Assemblyman Doug LaMalfa so quickly.'"

"'He usually doesn't endorse people in very many races so it did surprise me that he so immediately endorsed someone without knowing who was all in,' he said. 'I may give him an opportunity to change his mind.'"

The rest of this Chico Enterprise Recorder article is here.

Samuel Mark Aanestad (born July 16, 1946, in Bismarck, North Dakota) is an oral and maxillofacial surgeon who was elected to the California State Assembly in 1998 to represent the 3rd District. In 2002, Aanestad was elected to the California State Senate. He is a Republican. Dr. Aanestad and his wife, Susan, live in Penn Valley and have three adult children.

Dr. Aanestad has practiced oral and maxillofacial surgery full-time in Grass Valley, and has served as the Vice-Chief of Surgery at Sierra Nevada Memorial Hospital. He served three terms on the California Dental Association Council on Legislation, including three years as chairman, and he served two terms as president of the Butte-Sierra District Dental Society. He is also a member of the California and American Dental Association.

Dr. Aanestad served 11 years on the Grass Valley School District Board of Trustees, where he fought for greater local control and smaller class sizes. He has been very involved within his community as a member of the Rotary Club of Grass Valley, a youth soccer, football, and baseball coach, and as a member of the KNCO radio broadcast team for Nevada Union High School football.

Senator Aanestad received both his Bachelor of Arts and Doctor of Dental Surgery degrees from UCLA. Dr. Aanestad received a Master in Public Administration degree from Golden Gate University in 1991. He was honored by the UCLA School of Dentistry as their "Alumnus of the Year" in November 1998.

In California's State Senate, Dr. Aanestad's top priorities were preserving rural health care, protecting North State water, and serving the needs of the citizens of the 4th Senate District, which includes Butte, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Nevada, Placer, Shasta, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity and Yuba counties.

A successful campaign by Sam Aanestad in this race will have long lasting conservative repercussions through the north state. There is no doubt that our local Sam Aanestad is a statesman. With the Obamacare debate still raging nationwide, there is no doubt that Dr. Aanestad would be an experienced voice in such debate.

Dr. Aanestad's entrance into this congressional race is a good thing. Every national candidate needs to be adequately vetted...only a contested national congressional race will provide the required vetting of all of our choices.

I say the more the merrier.

Scoop: Herger Retiring and Endorses LaMalfa (Updated)

I got an inside tip today that Wally Herger, who has represented the north part of California in Congress for almost 30 years will retiring. He is endorsing Doug LaMalfa to replace him. There will be a mad dash of filers to compete for the newly vacated Congressional seat.

There will likely be some stories on the internet tomorrow.

Updated: "After a quarter century representing the north state, U.S. Rep. Wally Herger will announce tomorrow he is planning to retire at the end of his current term and state Sen. Doug LaMalfa will be running for his seat."

"LaMalfa is expected to make his announcement Tuesday morning."

For more information, click here and here.

Jim Reed, an attorney from Fall River Mills, will likely continue his quest. Go here to read about Jim Reed's crowd of 20 people when he announced his candidacy.

The newly revised congressional District 1, which includes Butte, Shasta, Nevada, Siskiyou, Tehama, Lassen, Plumas, Modoc and Sierra counties, and parts of Placer and Glenn counties.

Nevada County Fair - Results of Republican Straw Poll (Updated)

The Nevada County Republican Central Committee conducted a Republican Presidential Straw Poll at the Fair Booth this weekend. Over 160 people voted in the Straw Poll.

The results are as follows:

Rick Perry 41 votes (25.2%)
Michelle Bachmann 35 votes (21.5%)
Mitt Romney 26 votes (16.0%)
Herman Cain 14 votes (8.6%)
Undecided 11 votes (6.7%)
Ron Paul 10 votes (6.1%)

The remaining candidates all received less than 10 votes.

While I manned the booth on Sunday afternoon, Todd Juvinall kept control on Friday and Saturday evenings, and Doug LaMalfa dropped by on Thursday night. The conversations at the Republican Fair Booth were lively! There is certainly a more focused and concerned feeling among the populous. We even had a pro-Union, registered Democrat tell us that she and her husband were quite upset with Obama despite having voted for him in the past.

This election will clearly be about the economy and jobs...no question. That being the case, Rick Perry has the inside track with a pro-growth and history of creating jobs. I think that the next year will politically be a lot of fun!

UPDATED:  I was interviewed by Paul Emery of KVMR while I was working at the Republican booth.  The interview aired last night - August 15.

The interview is here and starts at 24:50.

The interview was short, but Paul Emery and I spoke for at least 20 minutes afterwards.  Paul is a great guy, and we had a great conversation about Nevada County politics and our local blogs.  I am looking forward to listening to Paul Emery and George Rebane on September 27th at 6:30pm at the Horsemen's Club.  I have no doubt that both Paul and George will provide the audience with something about which to contemplate.

Thanks Paul!